Archive for the 'Andy’s Butterfly Manifesto' Category

By Andy

[Note from Steve: Andy sent this to me last night, but I had turned in early, have been away all day, and neglected to leave him the keys. Thus he is kind of annoyed at me for making him less timely than he was. Trust me, he was very, very timely. He's practically a Minuteman. Any tardiness is purely my fault.]

It’s been nearly two weeks since I last wrote, wherein I stated that the election (in my honest assessment) is over due to the large lead Obama had on 10/22 in Virginia and Iowa and the opinion that the media is just trying to milk the final weeks because they really don’t want you to believe the race is really over. A big thanks to Charles Harris who provided us with that great Howard Fineman quote from 2000 .

Since that time, I’ve had numerous fires to put out at my day job and then spent five days home sick with the worst cold I’ve had in over five years. This resulted in my first ever ear infection since 1982 and as a parent, I can tell you that your kid IS NOT overreacting when they’re screaming like a raving lunatic when they have one. Add in the resultant vertigo (long story) and the fact that I accidentally shaved off my beard (don’t ask) and it’s easy to see that my life has been quite a mess lately.

During my days home, I tried my best to write, and have outlined some stuff (completely non-political) that should be rolling out within a week. The big silver lining in being sick, however, was that I happened to be at home just when the stock market had it’s most recent (and by far) worst collapse wherein I dedicated hours pouring over old issues of Fortune Magazine, Business 2.0 (G-d, I miss that one), and checking out the free section of Motley Fool , trying my best to hunt for quick money makers and great long term values. Set forth below are the list of companies (by ticker) that I’ve taken a chance on. Some are solid picks and many I had never heard of until last week. I’ll write about my mostly unorthodox methodology in my next entry.

AIG – acquired at $2.00
C – acquired at $12.19
FMD – acquired at$1.76
GE – acquired at $17.81
ICO – acquired at $4.40
PRFT – acquired at $4.21
SLT – acquired at $5.90
SNDK – acquired at $8.14
SOV– acquired at $2.25
USU – acquired at $3.50
ZIXI – acquired at $1.80

For the remainder of this entry, I’d like to offer my prediction on the election results. There’s no surprises here and I wanted to personally send out condolences to Mr. Obama on the passing of his grandmother. I can’t say whether there will be any last minute groundswell of support for Obama because of her passing, but if there is, it would only serve to make his electoral count a genuine landslide as opposed to a decisive mandate.
My prediction is as follows:

Obama will win all of the John Kerry states from 2004 … comfortably and without problems.

EV Count: 252

Next up, Obama will pick up 39 more EV’s with wins in Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada and Colorado. Note that CNN is presently predicting that Obama will win these states as well.

EV Count: 291

This leaves the battleground states of MT, ND, MO, IN, OH, NC, FL and AZ (if you ask the Obama folks). Just going by gut, I say that Obama wins Ohio, North Carolina and Florida and loses all others. This assumes no voter fraud like we had in 2004 and adds another 62 EV’s for a:

Final EV Count: 353.

… and that’s all I have to say about that.

If you’re reading this, take a moment and share your EV prediction. Even if you think McCain will win, go ahead and post away. BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY, GET OUT THERE AND VOTE!!!!

–Andrew Baharlias

By Andy

At noon today, Rasmussen reported that Obama’s lead had jumped to a whopping 10% over McCain in Virginia. Additionally, Nate Silver’s projections at 538 have consistently had Obama with a 90%+ winning percentage over the last two (2) weeks. The champagne in my refrigerator is now icy cold and while I still send $30 to Obama every time he sends out an email offering a free t-shirt for the donation … the urgency for me has finally passed. I’m planning on popping the cork shortly after 8pm when Virginia and the Presidency will be called for Barack Obama.

The bottom line here is that almost all of the reputable analysts can’t see anything that will swing the election away from Obama anymore; including the potential for rampant voter disenfranchisement in Ohio and Florida. It just doesn’t matter anymore. He’ll almost certainly win without either.

Don’t forget that Obama’s plan was never to rely on these states anyway. Winning them was important, but not critical. From early on , Obama’s camp discussed the alternate routes to 270. This alternate route, which I believe he started talking about in January of 2008 (sorry folks, can’t find a reference for this), is what caught my attention and made me switch from Clinton to Obama before Super Tuesday. Not just because of its inherent logic, but its unspoken message. With respect to logic, Obama wasn’t just presenting an electoral map that gave him more chances at success, it was the resultant stress that this strategy would put on the McCain campaign—and who imagined back in March that in the final weeks, McCain would be defending North Carolina and Missouri from going Blue? With respect to an unspoken message, it was the idea that his strategy would help repair the nation and end the process of each of us thinking along the lines of Blue and Red states.

I bring up Obama’s speech from the 2004 convention,

The pundits like to slice-and-dice our country into Red States and Blue States; Red States for Republicans, Blue States for Democrats. But I’ve got news for them, too. We worship an awesome God in the Blue States, and we don’t like federal agents poking around our libraries in the Red States. We coach Little League in the Blue States and have gay friends in the Red States. There are patriots who opposed the war in Iraq and patriots who supported it. We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the stars and stripes, all of us defending the United States of America.

Hillary Clinton’s argument back in March (2008) that, “Only I can win Ohio” was an arrogant statement. Combine this with my fear that Clinton as a person is such a polarizing figure that her candidacy alone could have energized the Republican base only made me pull away from her more. It represented to me the continued erosion of the country into lines of demarcation that without check, could become permanent in the fabric of our society. This is hard to admit because I love Hilary! I saw Clinton along with the host of this Blog at Rutgers University in the Spring of 1992 and remarked to him that I though she’d make a better President that her husband. But that was a different time, and a different America.

I think Obama is about the re-unification of the United States. This may be his dream (or just mine), but it seems to me that if it is, there’s increasing hope that it may work. I hope that Obama has a unifying plan that translates beyond his electoral strategy, and if he does, I hope that in the end we all will be proud to help execute it.

Again, I quote Mr. Obama, “In the end, that’s what this election is about. Do we participate in a politics of cynicism or a politics of hope?” I’m all for hope, Barack.

Andrew Baharlias

by Andy

Yet Another Example Of Me Not Being An Economist… but I’m fascinated by this article at bankaholic.com, wherein they discuss the possibility of a North American currency called the “Amero”, which would combine the currencies of the United States, Canada and Mexico and form a second World Economy, with the idea of laying the groundwork for a true global economy.

The article more or less denounces the notion as being conspiracy-theory nonsense, and on a practical level can anyone imagine this happening with Mexico included?
Personally, I don’t think a combined currency/economy with Canada would be such a terrible thing, but of course am not qualified to offer critical analysis. What I do know is the following:

• Presently, the $USD and the $CDN are only separated by about eight (8 cents) with the $USD trading around $1.08CDN in a recession-bound US economy, and as recently as six (6) months ago, they were an even $1 to $1.

• With Canada beginning to exploit their large reserve of oil shale and oil sand, their economy may see the necessary growth to match or exceed the US economy as we climb out of recession.

• Like the USA, Canada has vast natural resources (and with advancing technology, the ability to reach such resources).

• Although not that relevant, despite the governmental system being set up rather differently, the two countries are rather similar in sense of, “living here isn’t all that different than living there.”

• And finally, the Euro (which is the currency of the fifteen members of the Eurozone ) is now believed to be the largest economy in the world, with $1Euro equal to approximately $1.38USD

One wonders whether a combined CAN-AM currency for Canada and the United States might help improve the US economy and provide some more strength and legitimacy to an evolving and improving Canadian economy. Further, would Canada’s recent economic progress help save the United States from our pending (or current) recession.

Although it would be geographically cute to combine Mexico into this mixture, I can’t see this being a terribly good idea considering the political instability and historic economic weakness of Mexico. After all, we are talking about the country that, despite its geographical proximity, allowed China to replace it as the United States’ second largest importer of goods; and has recently shaken up the world of high couture by making the ultimate fashion statement… bulletproof clothes.

Again, I invite your comments and corrections.
Andrew Baharlias

By Andy

Despite the seeming unanimity of the post-game polls, there was no clear “winner” in the debate Friday night. This could be considered a major win for Obama. Running out of time and options with which to take back the lead, McCain needed to appear as a commanding statesman and instead appeared as a peevish, somewhat crotchety senior. If there is a resultant large bump in Obama’s favor, it might be a sign that the American public is finally connecting with the man the way I connected with him after reading his books—or that they’re disconnecting from McCain. In either case, there is an excellent chance that this race could be over.

Even with the negative vibes, McCain still marginally held his own on the subject of the economy by resorting to the old trick of focusing on a trivial matter and repeating it ad nauseam until it seems like a serious matter. Pointing out Obama’s pork-barrel requests on at least 3 occasions in the span of 2 minutes is what I am referencing. Almost simultaneously, McCain seemed out of touch when he interjected his proposal for a $5000 tax credit for health insurance. Obama could have responded that any person with a preexisting condition searching for health insurance on the open market would not be helped by $5000. Failing that, he still succeeded in undermining McCain’s pork-flavored tirade by contrasting $18 billion of pork to the $300 billion in tax cuts McCain is offering to the wealthiest corporations and persons in the United States. It was a surprisingly brilliant response from a Democrat—they normally focus on refuting the attack rather than refuting the point—and it reflected Obama’s longstanding position that the citizens of this country are not stupid and can make objective, rational decisions if given the proper facts.

Still, in spite of Obama’s excellent retorts on some issues, he may have lost ground on others because he was far too deferential. He began by thanking McCain profusely on camera (but prior to the debate beginning) for just showing up, and then continuing his affability by stating, “I agree with John on…,” or “John is right on…,” Obama may have missed the memo warning him that agreeing with your opponent mostly nullifies anything you may say after the concurrence. How many times did McCain agree with Obama? Zero. McCain’s bombastic pugnacity may have nullified this effect to some degree, but if continued into another debate it may begin to resemble passivity.

In this debate the American people were given an opportunity to see each man for the first time as would-be President. I’m biased, but Obama just seems more presidential. He’s intelligent, articulate, conveys strength, passion and a genuine desire to change this country for the better. McCain is presidential in his own way, I suppose, but it seems as if his time has passed. A McCain presidency ending in 2008 might have been better than the last eight years of hell (if one is to believe that he would have kept to his moderate Senate record prior to 2005); however, a McCain presidency that would begin in 2009 would be an instant anachronism.

Andrew Baharlias